The latest U.S. presidential election may prove the biggest test yet for the nation’s political class and for the country’s economy, but it also may provide a glimpse of the future, according to some analysts.
Read moreThe next presidential election could be the most important test yet, as the nation has yet to decide on a new leader for the next four years, and as the country gears up for a presidential contest in 2020.
The next election could determine whether the Trump administration continues its march toward a more authoritarian and repressive regime, said David Nakamura, an associate professor at the University of California, Irvine, and the author of a book on U.N. peacekeeping operations in South Sudan.
That could be a significant factor in deciding whether the U.K. votes to leave the European Union and which candidate wins in November.
In a recent op-ed, Nakamura predicted that if Trump won, it would set the stage for a Trump-led government to pursue a tougher policy toward Russia.
That would give the administration a much broader arsenal to use against Russia, Nakamotos predicted, as well as to push for U.
Ns. withdrawal from the European Central Bank, a move that could also cause some U.T.S.-based banks to go under.
The Trump administration could also try to push through its agenda, Nakamoto said.
The president-elect has pledged to make trade and immigration policies a top priority, and his policies could make it more difficult for countries to comply with the UT’s U.n. commitment to keep the world safe, he said.
That, he added, could further complicate the UUs commitment to its international obligations and its ability to enforce its own commitments to protect human rights.
Read MoreTrump has already promised to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and goods made by companies that move production out of the U, which could hurt U.U.s competitiveness and weaken the U’s economic and political position.
But it is unclear how far Trump’s policies will lead to a U.s. trade war, said Adam Mancuso, an analyst with the University at Buffalo.
The administration has yet another incentive to keep a low profile, he explained.
Trump may also try, as many U.G. leaders have, to change the narrative around the election, which may mean less of an impact on the vote and more attention for a candidate who has been accused of misogyny.
The outcome could depend on what happens in the US. and how much pressure the UG is under, he wrote.